Gavin Eescobar Realistic Expectations For 2014

Some people believe that Dallas Cowboys TE Gavin Escobar has to have a breakout season in order to prove he was worthy of being drafted in the second round. Yes, they could have used that selection to add a piece to a needy defense, but that doesn’t mean Escobar needs to have a big year. People need to realize that the second tight end in the Dallas scheme doesn’t get a lot of looks. In the general 12 personnel, meaning one running back and two tight ends and two wide outs, the second tight end is often the fourth or fifth option. In the empty backfield, the second tight end is still the fourth or fifth option. If the other three or four options are winning their battles, Escobar isn’t going to get many passes thrown to him. The question remains, what are realistic expectations for Gavin Escobar, who is entering his second year?

A while back, I did an article where I compared Dez Bryant’s catch to target ratio. Dez Bryant had a catch percentage of roughly 58% compared to Calvin Johnson’s 54%. If you want to play the percentage game, Gavin Escobar has 9 catches and 15 targets, which puts him at a 60% catch ratio. He also averages 14.9 yards per catch. For the sake of comparison, Jason Witten averaged 11.6 yards per catch in 2013.

Realistically, Gavin Escobar’s biggest improvement won’t make the stat sheet. His biggest improvement would be for him to improve his strength to help him block defenders more efficiently in the running game. Again, this won’t be shown on Escobar’s stat sheet, but it will be seen on Demarco Murray’s and Lance Dunbar’s. If he can do this, he should see the number of his snaps increase dramatically. It has been reported that Escobar has been in the weight room steadily since February. The coaches have also mentioned that Escobar looks stronger and faster in minicamp. If he improves his blocking more than expected, you could see Jason Witten come off the field a few times for a breather. Staying on the realistic train of thought, barring an injury to Witten, which would greatly increase Escobar’s snaps and targets, he should probably have between 25-35 catches. If he averages 12.5 yards per catch, at 30 catches, then he would have roughly 375 yards. He might receive some looks in the red-zone due to his height, so I am going to guestimate 4 touchdowns.

If Escobar has a year such as the year I set forth, he would be well on his way to proving that he is worth his second round draft selection. People are willing to groom a quarterback in hopes that he will turn out well. Why not let Dallas continue grooming the heir to Jason Witten before placing judgment upon him?